President Park seems to be promising for every group of her electorate and even sending messages across the border, across the demilitarized zone and further, across the Pacific and to the nearest neighbors. First of all, president Park wants to make Korea democratic and economically stable and a happy society, and how she can achieve it is another issue but it looks like she is guide to deliver the opening of the new era of hope ? this is how she entitled her inaugural speech today. So, I think that President Park is trying to address most of the issues - both economic, political and security issues looking at the core of the problems. So, she tries to make South Korean society still very economically viable and export oriented. She tries to achieve some sort of reconciliation between North and South Korea or at least avoid any open clashes and she sends clear message to the neighbors that Korea is going to look at the possibilities of maintaining its highly developed level of its industry. She will put more emphasis on her science and technology in order to achieve the creativity of the economy. So, her inaugural speech was full of promises, she will have 5 years to prove that she understands the ways how to achieve these goals and I think she is well-placed in politics and she is well-versed and well-trained politician. All she needs is the support of the people and I think that the very fact that she was successful in the presidential elections, that the majority of the Koreans supported her gives some hope that promises she have are going to be delivered and people are going to support the ways how she is going to lead the nation to the great achievements of economic democratization, and as she said, the second miracle of the Han River.
When you were saying that she has the popular support, as far as I understand only a little bit more than 50% voted for her. So, doesn?t it really indicate that a good portion of South Koreans is somewhat skeptical about her promises?
Well, a little more than 50% is an excellent mark for a democratic society. If you look at the United States, if you look at European countries, you will see there is hardly a possibility for any politician to win more than, say 55%. It would be landslide victory if somebody gets 55%. Usually it is less, so it is often just a very narrow competition. And president Park was competing against the democratic camp and it is interesting that she belongs to and she represents the conservative wing of the politics in South Korea and still despite of the rather controversial image of her father late president Park Chung-hee, despite of the rather difficult situation, which was bequeathed from her predecessor president Lee Myung-bak, the conservative who derailed the inter-Korean dialogue and cooperation, still she was supported by more than 50% of the population. Certainly Korea is divided, there is so-called south south division controversy between left and right in Korean politics, it is not new phenomena, it is quite a bit of time since Korea was divided. This division in Korean politics shows that the society is groping for ways to find the reconciliation, first, of all with North Korea which is quite difficult but, secondly, inside the society. And this division between left and political left and political right is what we saw during the electorate election campaign and Park Geun-hye was very skilled and very accurate by appealing to both groups and finally she managed to secure victory and smash it from Moon Jae-in, from her rival from the democratic camp by showing better political qualification, some clearer program, and definitely the will to deliver her promises by the means, which would not antagonize the society, and that is what South Korea badly needs - the reconciliation within the society, which would sooner or later lead to the reunification or at least reconciliation with North Korea and peaceful co-existence with the neighbors.
But given the new US policies in that region, how do you think the foreign politics and the relations between South Korea and the United States might develop under the new president?
Certainly, since president Park belongs to the conservative camp, the relations between Seoul and Washington are going to be stable, friendly, these will be the relations of security allies. We know that inter-Korean cooperation often damages the relations between South Korea and the United States, we saw it during the 10 Years of Sunshine Policy of 1998-2007. But I don?t expect now since president Park won the election, I don?t expect the continuation or repetition or resumption of the Sunshine Policy, but at least the relations with Washington are going to be stable. That is what South Korea actually sets as its goal that either divided or unified the Republic of Korea is going to stay a security ally of the United States. Some people might find this statement difficult to absorb because we know that Korean Peninsula is divided and as long as some superpowers or regional powers try to dominate on the Korean Peninsula, any kind of expectation of peace or reconciliation looks rather problematic. So, US-South Korean alliance, which is understood in Seoul and Tokyo as linchpin of security instability is looked at with rather suspicion from Beijing and Moscow and definitely from Pyongyang. So, I believe that relations between South Korea and the United States are going to be stable, no sensations should be expected in the next 5 years of president Park as a president of Republic of Korea but it also means that reconciliation and cooperation between North and South Korea probably is not going to change its nature. So, there will be rather confrontation instead of peaceful co-existence, rivalry rather than reconciliation and possibly military conflicts, which we saw several times during the president Park?s predecessor Lee Myung-bak, we saw it several times in particular during 2010 - the aggravation and escalation of the situation, hostilities in West Sea and the situation in the Korean Peninsula. So, I believe that South Korea should look more at the possibility of peaceful co-existence with North Korea, without asking permission, specific permission from Washington DC or from any other regional power, only in that case the reconciliation and peaceful co-existence between north and south would be possible and potentially reunification or at least collaboration can be achieved but security alliances and Seoul-Washington-Tokyo security alliance precludes any cooperation with North Korea as a hostile state, as a state which still is at war with the United States, South Korea and Japan, and in that case I don?t expect any major changes in the next 5 years while president Park is in office.
Do you think that perhaps in this case South Korea might appear to be something like a hostage between the US and the Chinese Republic? I mean the growing rivalry between the two heavyweights seems to be sending a little bit alarming signals around the region. Do you think that South Korea could be involved?
Certainly many people compare the Korean Peninsula with a shrimp between the whales - when whales fight, the shrimp is suffering and the little peninsula is squeezed between the mammoth countries of China, Russia, the United States, and certainly the conflicting security blocks, something what we inherited from the cold war era, does not help the Korean unification. Certainly, the cold war frontier crosses the Korean Peninsula and the continuing suspicions and continuing threat, which we see in the region on one side from People?s Republic of China, on the other side, from the United States, certainly affects the Korean Peninsula and that is why we see the continuation and the division of Korea into North and South Democratic People?s Republic and Republic of Korea. Certainly, both can be looked as buffer states by the continuing cold war confrontation. But South Korea managed to develop the democratic mechanisms, which govern its politics and economy. Certainly the Republic of Korea tries to be friendly with at least one superpower but the problem is that the regional superpower, namely China is still a communist country which despite its economic reforms still misses a number of democratic institutions. So, South Korea demonstrates the stability and actually the pattern for many regional countries, of course for North Korea, but other regional countries probably should follow the pattern of Republic of Korea which managed to resurrect from the status of the poorest country in east Asia, a country which was governed by fierce dictatorship. By the way, the father of the current president Park was a dictator for a number of years before he was elected a president. So, we could see this miracle on the Han river and probably should understand that it is a beacon for freedom, democracy, egalitarity and economic prosperity for the regional powers including China. So, probably China should learn to some degree from Republic of Korea and that is actually what is happening at the moment. China is trying to antagonize with South Korea but economic operation is growing and also China is trying to see Korea as a regional balancer rather than a hostile power. So, as soon as Koreans in North and South Korea manage to iron out differences, I think that the region is going to be much more peaceful and much more stable corner of international community and the role of China and the United States on the Korean peninsula should be diminished, and I think the sooner it happens, the better would be for the Korean people.
Thank you so much.
Just to remind you, this time our guest speaker was Dr. Leonid Petrov, Expert on the Korean Peninsula at the Australian National University, coming to us from Sydney.
Source: http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_02_26/S-Korea-holds-breath-for-2nd-miracle-on-the-Han-River/
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